Ministers for the Department of Industry, Science and Resources
Resource and energy exports are continuing to provide for the Australian economy in the face of an uncertain global outlook.
The September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) published by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources has forecast nominal export revenue to grow from $403 billion in 2025–26 to $422 billion in 2026–27. The 2026–27 forecast reflects an upward revision of $6 billion from the June 2026 REQ forecast.
The REQ acknowledges the serious impact of the conflict in the Middle East on trade in energy commodities, and that the forecasts presented in this edition of the REQ remain highly uncertain due to continuing uncertainty as to when major shipping routes reopen and when damaged facilities can be repaired and restarted.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the nation’s diverse range of resource exports continued to provide for all Australians.
"In tough times for global trade, our resources industry is standing strong and continuing to reliably supply our world class products to the world.
“That means strong resource export earnings that deliver well paid jobs for workers and support for the Albanese government’s investments in more bulk-billing doctors, fee-free TAFE and support for schools, helping every day Australians doing it tough.”
Resource and energy exports make up two-thirds of Australia’s general merchandise exports.
Exploration expenditure has risen sharply for both minerals and petroleum, underlining confidence in Australia’s resources sector.
Iron ore continues to be the biggest export by volume, however prices are expected to come under pressure as global supply increases and steel demand weakens over the outlook period.
Gold export forecasts have been revised down, with a peak of $70 billion last financial year then edging down. The gold price eased to US$4,000 an ounce in June but has since rebounded. The average gold price is forecast to be US$4,600 in 2026, with the price to remain high through 2028.
Lithium prices rebounded sharply in the first half of 2026, driven by supply disruptions in China and Zimbabwe and continued demand through the battery supply chain. Prices are expected to remain firm as lithium demand grows, with Australian export earnings forecast to rise from $10 billion in 2025–26 to $17 billion in 2026–27 before falling to $15 billion in 2030–31.
The Australian Government is deeply committed to developing a critical minerals and rare earths industry. The combination of policies is bearing fruit, with Australia’s export earnings from lower volume critical minerals (excluding lithium and nickel) expected to increase from $5.5 billion in 2025–26 to $8 billion in 2030–31.
Combined with lithium and nickel, Australia’s critical minerals exports will grow from $25 billion this financial year to $26 billion next financial year, before easing to $25 billion in 2030–31.
The September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly report is available on the Department of Industry, Science and Resources website at https://www.industry.gov.au/REQSeptember2026