Ministers for the Department of Industry, Science and Resources
Australia’s resources and energy export earnings remain strong despite the challenging global trade environment.
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly publication from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources upgrades forecast export revenue to $405 billion in 2025–26 and $416 billion in 2026–27, up $22 billion and $42 billion respectively from the December forecasts.
Export revenue is expected to fall back after 2026–27, to $371 billion in 2030–31.
The artificial intelligence investment boom, the global energy transition and efforts by many nations to secure supply chains, are expected to generate demand for Australia’s resources and energy commodities over the 5-year outlook period.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the latest forecasts underline the strength and resilience of Australia’s resources and energy sector.
“Australia’s resources and energy sector continues to deliver strong export earnings that support jobs, investment and economic growth, despite geopolitical uncertainty,” Minister King said.
“Export volumes continue to remain strong, underlining Australia’s role as a reliable and stable supplier of resources and energy to our export partners and the region.”
Capital expenditure in Australia’s resource and energy sectors continues to rise, reflecting the ongoing strength of Australia’s industry and economy.
Iron ore exports will continue to account for more than 25 per cent of all resources and energy exports despite easing prices over the outlook period, while higher gold prices and volumes will see export earnings peak at around $73 billion in 2026–27.
Global demand for copper, nickel, aluminium, lithium and steel is likely to increase due to growth in renewable power generation and electrification, while Australian LNG export volumes remain strong despite easing global prices over the outlook period.
The forecasts are based on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from July, but acknowledge it will take some time for trade to return to pre-conflict levels.
The Resources and Energy Quarterly: June 2026 report is available on the Department of Industry, Science and Resources website at https://www.industry.gov.au/REQJune2026